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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  76.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  913 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  76.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  76.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N  77.7W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N  78.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.4N  79.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.7N  80.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 35.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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