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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  75.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  75.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  74.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N  76.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N  77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N  78.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.5N  79.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.1N  80.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  75.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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