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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  69.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  69.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N  69.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N  71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.9N  72.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N  74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N  76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N  78.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N  80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 29.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  69.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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