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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  63.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  63.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  63.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N  65.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N  66.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N  68.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N  69.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.1N  73.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N  77.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  63.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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