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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST.
EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  62.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  62.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  62.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N  64.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N  67.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N  69.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N  72.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N  76.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N  80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  62.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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