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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  51.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  51.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  51.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.3N  53.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N  55.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N  57.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N  59.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.2N  63.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.1N  67.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N  71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N  51.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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