Hurricane DORIAN (Text)


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data.  However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb.  The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.

The initial motion is now 335/8.  Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h.  This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life.  The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h.  As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast.  After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend.  Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds.  Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rain impacts along
portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay
continues to increase. Residents in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas,
where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.


INIT  04/1500Z 29.8N  79.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 30.8N  80.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 31.9N  79.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 33.1N  78.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 34.8N  76.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 39.9N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 47.5N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 55.0N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Beven


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:14 UTC