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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become
broad and less well-defined over the past several hours.  The
hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection
that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along
portions of the northeast coast of Florida.  Although the central
pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane
Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb.  The current
intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the
flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft.  Dorian will be
traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some
increase in vertical shear after 24 hours.  The official intensity
forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then
shows a very slow weakening thereafter.  This is close to the latest
statistical-dynamical guidance.  The system is expected to maintain
close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or
330/7 kt.  There is basically no change to the track forecast
reasoning.  Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the
subtropical ridge.  Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a
broad mid-latitude trough.  The official forecast track remains
close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and
life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds.  Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing.  Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast
today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region
on Friday.  There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday
across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern
North Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 29.2N  79.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 30.1N  79.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 31.2N  80.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 32.2N  79.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 33.7N  77.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 38.0N  70.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 53.5N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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