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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very
cold cloud tops on satellite images.  Observations from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated
that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud
pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at
least maintained that strength through the present time.  The
hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the
next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly
over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat
content.  Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to
commence after 12 hours or so.  The official intensity forecast is
near the high end of the numerical guidance suite.

The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt.  A high
pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward
movement through today.  By tonight, the global models show the
ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of
the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary
around 48 hours.  In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours.
As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
west during that time frame.  In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn
northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States.
By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough
should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas.

The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours
necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast.  Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and
Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for these areas.

2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the
Florida east coast.  Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along
portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week.  Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower
mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 26.4N  76.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 26.6N  77.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 26.7N  78.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 26.9N  78.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 27.0N  79.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 28.9N  79.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 31.8N  79.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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