Tropical Storm DORIAN (Text)


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with
Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening
likely due to intrusions of dry air.  The overall trend, however,
suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its
cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and
some broken outer bands.  The initial intensity is nudged up to 50
kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates.  Dorian
remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated
to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center.

During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward
Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems
likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs.  However, the
surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the
rate of intensification.  When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in
about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those
stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the
rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is
likely.  The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical
models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP
and LGEM that show significant intensification.  It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea.  Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence.  It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict.

Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge
to its north.  The storm should turn west-northwestward today and
then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the
eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low.  The track models have
shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has been nudged in that direction.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect.  Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados,
the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as
6 inches.

3.  While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.


INIT  26/0900Z 11.9N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 12.4N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 13.2N  60.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 14.4N  62.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 15.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 18.0N  68.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 20.8N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 23.0N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:13 UTC