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Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just
northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center.  Recent
scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of
the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt.  The
cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into
an area of decreasing vertical wind shear.  However, abundant dry
air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the
system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so.  The new intensity
forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating
completely by 96 h.

The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the
depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow
and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 38.8N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 38.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 36.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 36.1N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 35.7N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 36.6N  42.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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