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Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the
east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T
numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
SAB.  The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt.  The
depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer
waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a
day or two.  However, there is abundant dry air around the system,
and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which
should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36
hours.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow
the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on
Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday.

Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before,
or 100/15 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to
build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in
weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop
before it dissipates.  The new NHC track forecast is mainly an
update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and
the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 39.1N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 38.4N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 37.3N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 35.6N  41.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 36.2N  43.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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