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Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past
several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective
mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a
recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression
continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable
surrounding environment.  The official forecast calls for Chantal
to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner,
and is based primarily on the deterministic models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16
kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies.  Chantal is
forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the
eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in
forward speed, over the next couple of days.  By Saturday night, the
remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as
high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the
cyclone.  The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA
multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.4N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 38.8N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 37.9N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 36.8N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 35.9N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 35.8N  42.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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