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Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
100 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning from east of Morgan City to Grand Isle,
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New
Orleans has been discontinued.

All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning from the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to
Biloxi MS, including Lake Pontchartrain has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations.  For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.2 West.  Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across central and northern Louisiana today, and
over Arkansas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast to
the southeast of the center.  Additional weakening is expected as
the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to
a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.  Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.  This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-
threatening flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
through the morning.  Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle during the next few
hours.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and
southern and eastern Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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