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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
0300 UTC THU JUL 11 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  88.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  88.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  87.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.6N  88.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.6N  89.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.9N  90.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.3N  91.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N  92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE  80SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N  92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N  92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N  88.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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