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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  86.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  86.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N  87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N  88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N  89.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N  90.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N  92.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N  94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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