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Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the
previous advisory a few hours ago.  Satellite images show a
persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the
north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around
to the southeastern quadrant.   A recent partial ASCAT pass showed
maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found
earlier this evening and in about the same location.  Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.  This estimate is also in
agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS
at the University of Wisconsin.

Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level
low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why
the cyclone is considered subtropical.  This upper low and a ridge
to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt.  The
models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn
northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies
near the middle of the model guidance.

Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a
relatively moist and unstable atmosphere.  However, after that time,
a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable
environmental conditions.  All of the reliable models agree that
Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on
Wednesday.  This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
GFS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 29.5N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 30.4N  68.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 31.1N  67.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 31.3N  65.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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