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Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
600 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA
AND JALISCO...
...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.6 West.  Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday.  On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.  Isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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