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Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West.  Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the
center.  These winds are occurring very near the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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