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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER INCHING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 106.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 106.2 West.  Xavier is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but an
increase in forward speed is expected later today.  A westward
motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday.
On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and continue to move
farther away from the coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible.  This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through midday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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