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Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat
overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage
and becoming more separated from the low-level center.  Somewhat
surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC
indicated peak winds of around 50 kt.  This suggests that Xavier may
have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the
overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday
afternoon and evening.  Based on these data, the intensity was
adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains
at that value for now.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged.  Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air
mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly
quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that
Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours.

Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward
during the next 12 to 24 hours.  As the system weakens it is
forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the
low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days.  The track
guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a
result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it
remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for
continuity with the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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