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BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CORE OF DANGEROUS WILLA TO PASS OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
VERY SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.1 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast by this evening.  On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico late
this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  While gradual weakening is
forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane
when it reaches the coast of Mexico.  Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of
2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on Las Islas Maria today,
and within the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland
Mexico beginning this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm conditions will
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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