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BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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