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BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA MOVING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD DURANGO...
...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
inland Mexico near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 105.5 West. Willa
is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The
forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
western Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Very rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate on Wednesday

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is still occurring
along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern
Sinaloa and Nayarit. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue within the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening but
will gradually begin to subside early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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