ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...POWERFUL WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected early Tuesday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias early
Tuesday and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along
the west-central coast of mainland Mexico Tuesday afternoon or
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is
forecast tonight and Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.