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Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Willa
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night
or Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is
possible today, and Willa could become a category 5 hurricane later
this morning. While some weakening is forecast by tonight and
Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.49 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and Tuesday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.