ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch
along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
with a Tropical Storm Warning.  The government of Mexico has also
issued a Tropical Storm Watch from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.0 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight and Monday.  Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Willa is
a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Willa is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane tonight or
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts
across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and
Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.   This
rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN