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Hurricane Willa Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 106.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and a Tropical Storm
Watch from Playa Perula northward to south of San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches may be required for a portion of the coast of
mainland Mexico later today, and interests elsewhere along the
coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 106.7 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected by tonight and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and
approach the coast of southwestern coast of mainland Mexico by
late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major
hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive
waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts
across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and
Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.   This
rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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