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HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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