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Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).  The system
is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next day
or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
today or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Tara interacts with the
mountains of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima, western Jalisco,
and far western Michoacan through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches are possible over Colima and western Jalisco.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN