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Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

An AMSU microwave overpass after the release of the previous
advisory suggests that Tara is a little less organized than before.
The image showed that the center of the small tropical cyclone was
located near the southeastern portion of a curved convective band,
but it was not as tightly coiled as before.  Conventional satellite
imagery has also revealed an overall decrease in the area of deep
convection and size of the cold clouds tops overnight.  Based on
these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt, which is
a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.

The track and intensity forecasts remain quite challenging this
morning.  It appears that southeasterly shear and the interaction of
the circulation with the high terrain of southwestern Mexico have
caused weakening overnight.  As the system moves closer to the
coast, additional weakening is predicted, and the NHC forecast
calls for a gradual decrease in intensity over the next few days.
It is possible that Tara will weaken and dissipate much sooner than
shown below if the small tropical cyclone moves inland or is so
close to the coast that the circulation becomes disrupted by the
mountainous terrain.  The latter is the scenario favored by most
of the typically reliable dynamical model guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Tara continues to inch closer to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, and the somewhat uncertain initial
motion estimate is north-northwest or 335 degrees at 2 kt.  The
latest runs of the global models once again either bring Tara
inland over Mexico today or show it dissipating near the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the next day or so.  As a
result, the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted northward and
brings the center of Tara very close to the coast within the next
12 to 24 hours.  Out of respect for continuity of the previous
advisories, the new NHC forecast keeps Tara meandering near
southwestern Mexico through 72 hours, but it is possible
that the storm will weaken and dissipate much sooner. Regardless of
the exact track or intensity of Tara, heavy rainfall will continue
to be a threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 18.7N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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