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Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland
northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening should begin later tonight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression before reaching
Sonora.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6
inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from
this weekend into Monday.  This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later
tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the
coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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