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Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio
has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the
northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This track with a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be
near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or
early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but
Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should
then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja
California peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early
Friday.  These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico
late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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