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Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on
later tonight or Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual
weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move
into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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