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Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.1 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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