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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  53...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of
Discussion and Outlook

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.

Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of
Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern
Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and
degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.
Dissipation should occur on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the
Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as
Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland
Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning.  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are
already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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