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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the
Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then
move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Gradual weakening should continue today, but
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression,
and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the
northwestern Mexico state of Sonora.  Dissipation should occur
Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later
tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the
coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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