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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 115.4 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is
expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm, but weaken to a tropical depression before reaching
Sonora.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6
inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from
this weekend into Monday.  This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight,
and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula
tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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