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Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northeastward
motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will
approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and
then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days.
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch
area tonight or early Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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