ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.  A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of
the watch area later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 122.4 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Thursday,
but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days.  Sergio is expected to reach the Baja California peninsula as
a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
by Thursday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN