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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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