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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.3N  96.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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