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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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