ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN