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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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