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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared
imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining
about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye.  This
primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the
satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial
intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.

Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it
traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures.  Beyond that
period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface
temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce
further weakening and at a faster rate.  Toward the end of the week,
Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California
peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days.  At which time,
the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
over the southwestern United States.  Moisture associated with the
remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and
portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region.  For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.
Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and
approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0000Z 35.4N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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