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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this
afternoon.  Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within
the eye.  However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level
clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined.  Based on a
blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory
intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the
previous advisory.  Sergio should remain in quite favorable
atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and
additional strengthening is expected through Thursday.  By
Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface
temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should
initiate gradual weakening.

Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By
Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn
west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the
north and northwest of the hurricane.  The official track forecast
lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently
located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is
expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane
overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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