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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

There has been little change to the overall organization of the
hurricane overnight.  Recent microwave data continue to show
that the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is
some northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level
centers due to northeasterly shear.  A blend of the various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields
an initial intensity of 100 kt.  The global models suggest that
the shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24
to 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening.  The NHC
intensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in
about 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity
guidance.  After that time, slightly cooler waters and the
entrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual
weakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the
entire forecast period.

Sergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt.  The
western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is
expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the
hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed.
By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the
northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn
westward.  The track guidance is in good agreement through 48
hours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter.  The
updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for
the first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution
and the consensus aids thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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