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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on
satellite imagery.  The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped
central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved
banding features.  The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Sergio is
forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate
vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next
few days.  Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio
will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so.  The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.

The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,
and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping
in from the northwest.  This change in steering currents should
result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed
by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days.  In the latter part of the
forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west.  The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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