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Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 115.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 115.8 West.  Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the
Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next
several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern
Gulf of California later tonight.  Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches
and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula.  Rosa is
expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.  The Mexican automated station on Isla Cedros
recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (73 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast
in portions of the warning area.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN